Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.059406 0.067237 0.075352 0.084361 0.094053 0.104141 0.115406
2025-02-16 0.042766 0.053754 0.065891 0.080154 0.096320 0.113945 0.134484
2025-02-23 0.035325 0.048671 0.064234 0.083376 0.105948 0.131405 0.161972
2025-03-02 0.029932 0.044873 0.063158 0.086539 0.115018 0.148008 0.188540
2025-03-09 0.023597 0.038800 0.058387 0.084438 0.117194 0.156116 0.204963
2025-03-16 0.018406 0.033345 0.053624 0.081648 0.117948 0.162093 0.218556
2025-03-23 0.016279 0.031799 0.053713 0.084850 0.126036 0.176927 0.242858
2025-03-30 0.014156 0.029904 0.053046 0.086834 0.132431 0.189623 0.264599
2025-04-06 0.012679 0.028771 0.053278 0.089908 0.140185 0.204036 0.288561
2025-04-13 0.010646 0.026392 0.051419 0.089865 0.143660 0.212938 0.305640
2025-04-20 0.010285 0.026845 0.053814 0.095875 0.155348 0.232513 0.336362
2025-04-27 0.008417 0.024249 0.051234 0.094496 0.156820 0.238759 0.350141
2025-05-04 0.007165 0.022698 0.050322 0.095718 0.162201 0.250613 0.371827
2025-05-11 0.005723 0.020470 0.048100 0.094861 0.164664 0.258711 0.388908
2025-05-18 0.005346 0.020495 0.049708 0.099935 0.175669 0.278402 0.421338
2025-05-25 0.004879 0.020210 0.050723 0.104076 0.185380 0.296452 0.451795
2025-06-01 0.003731 0.017938 0.047910 0.101919 0.185767 0.301732 0.465371
2025-06-08 0.002710 0.015605 0.044684 0.098838 0.184595 0.304742 0.475857
2025-06-15 0.002444 0.015392 0.045526 0.102499 0.193528 0.321792 0.505216
2025-06-22 0.002098 0.014807 0.045558 0.104759 0.200349 0.335953 0.530798
2025-06-29 0.001880 0.014586 0.046304 0.108241 0.209068 0.352844 0.560185
2025-07-06 0.001470 0.013478 0.045064 0.108194 0.212327 0.362049 0.579220
2025-07-13 0.001494 0.014127 0.047669 0.114980 0.226261 0.386488 0.619126